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Cirrus Logic (CRUS) is a developer of integrated circuits for use in the audio (in portable devices, electronics, and automotive) and energy (power meters, LED lighting, and motor control) segments. The company has struggled for most of the year; in April, a production issue with an audio chip caused the company to take a charge of 6 cents per share ahead of fiscal fourth quarter earnings. Fears that the chip was a component of Apple (AAPL)'s iPad 2 drove the stock down some 12%. The company then was hurt by first and second quarter results, gapping down by double-digits each time, mostly due to disappointing guidance.

And yet, despite three consecutive earnings disappointments, and three drops of 12-14% in the span of just eight months, CRUS stock has held up surprisingly well. At Thursday's close of $16.39, the stock is actually up slightly from its close in April after disclosing the yield problems with its audio chip, well ahead of a double-digit loss for the Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX). It sits 36% below its 52-week high of $25.48, set back in March; a steep drop, to be sure, but far from unique in a sector that has seen many stocks fall by one-half or more.

The catalyst for CRUS' resilience appears to be its relationship with Apple. 59% of sales in the second quarter (ending September) were to Apple, or "Our #1 Customer," as Cirrus Logic's earnings presentation coyly refers to Cupertino. (The 10-Q gives away the secret.) Cirrus claims that its audio chips are in "all major Apple product lines": the iPhone, iPad, MacBook, and iMac.

In addition, Cirrus Logic has posted strong growth numbers. Revenue doubled from FY2009 to FY2011 (both years ending in March), and will grow an additional 7.4% for the first nine months of FY2012 at the midpoint of third quarter guidance. Earnings have been strong as well, as the company switched from a 7-cent per share loss in fiscal 2008 to an impressive $2.82 per share gain in fiscal 2011.

The problem, however, is that nearly all of Cirrus Logic's growth has come from its Apple relationship. Let's break down recent revenue numbers:

CRUS Revenues, Apple and Non-Apple, FY09-12

FY Net Revenue (MM) Apple Sales Apple Rev. (MM) Non-Apple Rev. (MM)
2009 $174.64 16% $27.94 $146.70
2010 $220.99 35% $77.34 $143.65
2011 $369.57 47% $173.69 $195.88
2012* $387.69 57% $220.98 $166.71

*Annualized run rate based on results from first six months.
Data from 2011 10-K and 2QFY12 10-Q.

Take away the Apple relationship, and Cirrus' growth almost disappears -- non-Apple revenue is growing, on average, just a few percentage points a year. Given the boom in the semiconductor industry at large in 2009 and 2010 (for which the sector is now paying in unfavorable comparisons and sharply depressed stock prices), that growth is suprisingly weak.

CRUS' impressive earnings growth disappoints upon further inspection as well. Fiscal year 2011's banner gain of $2.82 per share included tax benefits from a revalued asset of $119 million. Excluding those gains, GAAP income would have been just $1.17 (non-GAAP income was reported at $1.24 per share). Through the first two quarters of 2012, pre-tax income has actually declined, and tax treatment has reversed. Trailing twelve-month pre-tax GAAP income is actually about $1.02 per share, far less impressive than the $2.44 in GAAP earnings published on most stock screeners. (Trailing non-GAAP income now sits at $1.13 per share.)

Free cash flow is even less impressive. Free cash flow (defined here as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) ranged from $15MM to $19MM in 2008-2010, before reaching $67 million in FY2011. For the first six months of 2012, the company generated just $13 million in free cash. For a company with a billion-dollar market capitalization, and a $900 million enterprise value, the relatively paltry sums of cash generated should do little to entice investors.

In short, the bull case for investing in Cirrus Logic relies almost solely on the company's status as a supplier to Apple. Without that relationship, CRUS is a $5-8 stock -- at best. That kind of customer concentration poses a serious risk to shareholders -- just ask investors in OmniVision, who have seen their stock fall over 70%, due in large part to questions about the placement of the company's image sensors in the iPhone 4S. Cirrus' manufacturing slipup earlier this year -- whether or not it was indeed for iPad components -- proves just how tenuous the supplier position can be, particularly for a customer with the high volume and quick ramp times of Apple.

But even with the Apple relationship remaining in place, it is unclear that Cirrus Logic can maintain the growth rate of the past few years. The company's Apple-related revenue has grown by eight times in three years. Cirrus appears to be a valued and loyal partner, but how much more penetration can it get into Cupertino? Unit growth will continue for Apple; but per-unit prices for Cirrus components will likely stay flat, or decrease, as it often the standard in the semiconductor industry.

Indeed, the sharply lower growth rate in FY2012 -- 7.4%, after 27% and 67% in 2010 and 2011, respectively -- would seem to show the lessening effect of the Apple relationship. At the very least, the continued growth in Apple sales is not offsetting weakness in the Energy Products segment and the company's seeming failure to successfully market its chips to Apple competitors.

And while CRUS' fundamentals may appear moderate -- even cheap -- at first glance, it's important to remember that the stock is priced well ahead of its sector. Semiconductor companies in all segments of the industry are seeing single-digit P/E's as fears of a worldwide slowdown and a supply glut weigh on share prices. CRUS, trading at 14.5 trailing non-GAAP earnings, and 12.6x earnings on an enterprise basis, has been awarded a premium to the sector because of its strong revenue growth and its position as an Apple supplier.

But, again, as noted, the recent top-line growth is almost solely derived from that Apple relationship. Setting aside any risk of a fallout with Cupertino, the question investors must ask is: Why not just buy Apple? Apple closed Thursday at $387.93. Backing out its nearly $90/share in cash and long-term investments, it trades at an enterprise value-earnings ratio around 11. CRUS closed Thursday at $16.59; backing out its $2.15/share in cash, it trades at an enterprise value-earnings ratio of 12.6. Right now, Cirrus Logic can only grow as fast as Apple does. Yet that growth can be bought cheaper in AAPL than in CRUS.

Investors can look to the two stocks as an interesting pairs trade (long AAPL, short CRUS), or CRUS may provide an interesting short opportunity around $17, as the stock continues a series of lower highs. January earnings may provide an entry point for a short sale, given the company's recent struggles after quarterly releases. Any holiday strength (or weakness) in iPad and iPhone sales will likely move Cirrus Logic stock, so investors must stay on their toes. But, for the mid- to long-term, at current valuations, Cirrus Logic looks like a sell.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

This article is tagged with: Long & Short Ideas, Short Ideas, Technology, United States
Comments (14)
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  • Because - CrApple is a Greedy Immoral Monopoly, while Cirrus Logic is just a company to invest in.
    2 Dec 2011, 11:57 AMReport Abuse0
  • Watch your back in dark alleys -- you should never cross the Apple Mafia in public.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:11 PMReport Abuse0
  • A very well-argued piece, but still: investing in the co. that is tied to the giant, and the giant is getting ever stronger, is still prudent, though perhaps more risky than I thought before reading the article.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:05 PMReport Abuse1
  • My worry is the rapidly increasing importance of those ties -- in three years, Apple has gone from important (16%) to critical (59%). How much longer until CRUS has no pricing leverage whatsoever? It reminds me a bit of the companies who focus their entire businesses around supplying Walmart. The constant need for higher volume at lower prices becomes insatiable.

    Apple may carry CRUS to a billion in sales and $200 million in profits. As an investor, I would be worried about having all my chips in my one basket (sorry for the bad pun). Thanks for the comment.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:15 PMReport Abuse0
  • Nice piece, Vince. Good analysis and thought provoking. CRUS passes my screens with flying colors but you point out a chink in fundamental analysis.
    2 Dec 2011, 12:55 PMReport Abuse0
  • Thanks for the compliment. It's been on my screens for several months as well, but I've been surprised at how well it's held up, given the bad news in my "notes" column -- particularly when compared to a number of the semiconductor stocks that have been hammered. That's what sparked the research that became the article.
    3 Dec 2011, 03:28 AMReport Abuse0
  • Wall St seems to like best in breed for stocks. But for some reason they like to be very shrewd and buy suppliers in lieu because best in breed are usually "expensive", not the case with APPL though. Cramer frequently does this.
    2 Dec 2011, 01:15 PMReport Abuse0
  • Yes, the "key supplier" label does seem to bode well for a stock. And it does make sense for small- to mid-caps, since their growth can outpace that of the customer. If ABC company has $100MM in sales and gets an Apple contract, their revenue might triple.

    The problem for CRUS is that it appears -- at least from their CC's and presentations -- that they have penetrated most, if not all, of the Apple devices. So the possibility of growth that doubles or triples going forward seems less likely. In the meantime, their non-Apple sales are stagnating; thus the overall prospects for growth seem more limited going forward.
    3 Dec 2011, 03:38 AMReport Abuse1
  • I have worked in Cupertino for many decades and trust me, Apple has multiple suppliers for those chips that are important to their supply chain. Having said that, I have no specific knowledge of this case so it could be an exception. It would be highly unusual though for any company to be so dependent on only one supplier for a critical part. In my case I am very long AAPL and would look to buy a semiconductor company only very cautiously. That said, I will look at CRUS, among others. It may be an interesting opportunity.
    3 Dec 2011, 12:52 PMReport Abuse0
  • You have made some good points. But what interests me about crus is the insider buying. Do they know something.
    3 Dec 2011, 10:36 PMReport Abuse0
  • At high leveI, I am not in complete disagreement wrt your "topic name". However, reading the article made me feel left with incomplete information.
    You have pointed to something that is known for years now. And has hurt CRUS stock a few times when an article like this or someone has tried to float a rumor on this basis.
    A technical person would know the value of making custom chips for majority of products made by the client. CRUS holds patents for the design of these audio chips. It is not impossible, but would be design tedious for AAPL to drift away from CRUS to a new supplier. And there has to be a reason for doing so. Just for thoughts ... why AAPL decided to go with small supplier like CRUS, OR why is AAPL their only major client in mobile/tablet/PC market? - All to do with quality - AAPL wants to deliver best quality music and CRUS is best in the market in doing so.
    Investing in a company should also include their future plans. You have forgotten to mention the innovation happening at CRUS. This small company holds over 1000 patents. One fine example is LED controller chips. This could turn out to be a big market for them. They seem to have parterned with a giant LED manufacturer.
    I recommend readers to listen to CRUS cc and presentations on their website.
    For me, CRUS is an undervalued stock, so is AAPL.
    4 Dec 2011, 03:11 AMReport Abuse0
  • It has not been known "for years" because the significance of Apple to CRUS has only become so concentrated in the last 18 months or so.

    As far as the quality of CRUS, that may be true -- but, if so, why is non-Apple revenue so stagnant? As far as the LED chips -- look at VECO, CREE, AIXG, etc. to see the valuations in the sector. There's a massive glut and serious pricing weakness. CRUS is a long way from seeing material profits in that sector, IMHO.

    As always, you may be right, and I may be wrong. With total growth slowing substantially, it just seems like the premium CRUS is getting relative to its sector is overvalued. Thanks for the comment.
    5 Dec 2011, 02:06 AMReport Abuse0
  • Thanks for replying.

    Being watching this stock getting punished (on rumours) multiple times in over two years surely feels like many years to me :)

    Lower non-Apple revenue (energy, home/car audio etc) is due to slowdown in economy, not due to any quality issues. Also, they are deliberately trying get rid of some legacy products. In this economy, how many companies we can count that are not gotten hit ... not many, but Apple is at the top. So, I count it as a good thing to be tightly associated with Apple.

    I do not know have detailed knowledge and fundamentals of other companies (you mentioned) well, so can not comment.

    To reduce the risk that some investors are feeling, CRUS is trying to get into other growing sectors (LED etc.). From the cc, their revenue allocation should start showing diversification by mid-2012.

    Besides company fundamentals, look at recent stock buying by executives - Director, CEO & CFO. They get a lot of stock options, and yet chose to invest their personal funds into CRUS, they surely had a lot of choices. This says a lot.
    5 Dec 2011, 11:15 AMReport Abuse0
  • Crus has been a tough call since April. Like it or not it has been a good trading stock, and not a long term hold. It's behaved well if you know it's movements and resistance. I think many investors have seen this and hacked through the hype articles that have plagued this little company for the year. A lot of attention had been paid of course because of it's connection to Apple, that's an understatement. But Apple, whether you like it or not, rules and will continue to rule. Bang your heads against the wall all you want. Apple rules period. Crus has a deep connection, based in Austin, texas, the company is very tight with Apple. Apple will not abandon them unless something goes terribly wrong. Apple unlike most other corporations runs, as Steve Jobs intended, on a "different" level then with a knee jerk reaction to everything, including relationships with suppliers, etc. CRUS is positioned better then any other chip maker like it because of this relationship. Apple TV anyone? Any other innovation down the road for apple beyond ipad, iphones and computers will most likely carry CRUS chips. It's been a hard year for most companies like CRUS and they have been a dud, unless your trading them with the swings. Bottom line, if you believe in the CRUS numbers connected with APPLE, and you believe in Apple and it's relationships with it's supplier fold, which I do, then CRUS will benefit and is undervalued. Sure if you take Apple away you have a 8 dollar stock, but Apple is king, and will remain King, as a good old servant to the king, it is highly unlikely that the king will cut it's ties. Buy CRUS and let the king throw flowers on it.
    4 Dec 2011, 01:17 PMReport Abuse0
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CRUS vs. ETF Alternatives
ETFs Today 3 Mths 1 Yr YTD
SLY0.2%8.2%6.3%6.3%
XLK0.2%3.9%4.0%6.2%
PRFZ-0.1%6.6%-0.1%7.5%
IPK-0.1%-1.2%-16.9%5.2%
RWJ-0.1%9.5%7.2%8.3%
UWM-0.2%12.8%-5.6%14.5%
EES-0.2%9.1%5.2%8.5%
CRUS-1.1%22.7%-2.9%28.8%
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